Iran’s Bushehr Facility: A Fragile Target

Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, located on the Persian Gulf coast roughly 17 kilometers southeast of Bushehr city. This 1,000-megawatt nuclear reactor power plant constructed with Russian support is not just an Iranian asset, it is a Gulf’s liability. Any attack on Bushehr would cause snowball consequences that no Gulf government no matter how well-prepared could fully contain. IAEA is concerned about Bushehr as any attack could pose unrecoverable damage. The plant has holds thousands of kilograms of nuclear material. Rosatom (the Russian nuclear corporation) estimates that Bushehr has a vast reserve of radioactive material (72 tonnes of active fuel and a further 210 tonnes of spent fuel on-site). CSIS analyze that a direct strike or even destroying the two power lines could meltdown the core reactor, releasing iodine-131 and cesium-137 across Iran and into nearby Gulf states. IAEA estimated a worst-case scenario which would require evacuation to hundred kilometers, including population centers in various Gulf countries. Authorities also need to administer iodine to civilians, restrict food supplies, and implement radiation monitoring across international borders. Researchers from Science and Global Security modelling spent fuel fire scenarios found that Kuwait City, Basrah, and Ahvaz face significant contamination probabilities from a Bushehr…